本地知识基础对新兴产业知识流动的影响——以中国燃料电池产业为例

经济地理学者对于新兴产业的产生区位长期存在争论,在中美贸易战背景下,探究其区位规律既是重要的学科问题,又对国家培育新兴产业具有重要指导意义。通过梳理“区域产业分叉”和“区位机会窗口”的观点,辨析出知识流动是影响新兴产业区位的关键点;以燃料电池产业为例,结合“相关多样化”假说的观点,采用面板空间自回归模型对知识基础的具体影响进行测度,结论如下：① 北京、上海、大连是燃料电池技术创新的三大知识流动中心,各地区“增长极”城市间的强联系是当前知识流动的空间格局的基础,而地理邻近的作用并不显著;② 相关技术知识基础对知识吸收能力具有稳定且显著的积极作用,且除用工成本外的多数控制变量显著为正;而非相关技术知识基础在早期呈现显著负相关。正是由于早期不同知识基础与控制变量的不同作用,导致了既集中于发达城市、又具有一定自由度的空间格局。研究结果表明知识经济时代下,知识基础对创新的锚定效应明显,区域产业分叉出现的概率加大,区位机会窗口较难打开。③ 非相关多样化的作用会随着新兴产业技术的持续发展而产生变化,由早期的消极影响逐渐转变为积极影响,应从演化视角重新审视非相关多样化的作用。

The impact of local knowledge base on knowledge flow of emerging industry:A case of China's fuel cell industry

Economic geographers have long argued about the location of emerging industry. Under the background of Sino-US trade war, exploring the location laws of emerging industries is not only a critical theoretical issue, but also has an important guiding significance for the country to cultivate emerging industry. Starting from the debate between "Regional Branching" and "Windows of Locational Opportunity", this paper identifies that knowledge flow is the key to affecting the location of emerging industry. According to the discussion of the relationship between variety and technological innovation in the related variety hypothesis, we use patent citation data to define related and unrelated variety. Then we use panel spatial autoregressive model to measure the specific impact of each factor in this paper. Finally, we can draw the following conclusions: (1) Beijing, Shanghai and Dalian are the three major knowledge flow centers of China's fuel cell industry. The strong connection between these "growth pole" cities is the basis of the current spatial pattern of knowledge flow, while the role of geographical proximity is not significant. (2) The related technology knowledge base has a stable and significant positive effect on knowledge absorption capacity, and most of the control variables are significantly positive except labor cost. The unrelated technology knowledge base has a significant negative impact in the early stage (the regression coefficient in the first stage was -0.038). Because of the different roles of different knowledge bases and control variables in the early stage (more positive effects and less negative effects), the overall spatial pattern is not only concentrated in the developed cities, but also has some freedom. The research results show that the anchoring effect of knowledge base on innovation is obvious, so "Regional Branching" is more likely to appear in the era of knowledge economy. (3) The impact of unrelated variety has gradually changed from negative in the early stage (-0.038) to positive in the final stage (0.079), which shows that the role of unrelated variety may change with the technological development of emerging industry. We should re-examine the role of unrelated variety from an evolutionary perspective.