新型基础设施建设与战略性新兴产业耦合协调发展测度及其耦合机制

利用2013—2018年中国30个省（市、区）数据，运用耦合协调模型对“新基建”发展水平及其与战略性新兴产业间的耦合协调度进行测度，结果发现：中国“新基建”及其三大子系统的发展水平均偏低，其中以“创新基建”发展水平最低；总体看，各省（市、区）的“新基建”与战略性新兴产业发展尚未达到良性耦合状态，且其失调风险趋于扩大；历年各省（市、区）的耦合协调发展存在“高者恒高、低者恒低”的锁定效应，并在数量分布上呈耦合水平两头区域少而中间区域多的“橄榄”形结构，且多数区域的“新基建”领先于其战略性新兴产业发展。分子系统来看，“信息基建”与战略性新兴产业耦合发展的锁定效应最强，“融合基建”与战略性新兴产业的耦合发展突破了“橄榄”形结构，“创新基建”与战略性新兴产业的耦合协调水平相对最低，而东部地区经济社会强省的3类耦合协调发展均具辐射引领效应。实证检验发现，除自身因素驱动效应外，经济集聚、人力资本、固定资产投资、产业结构、研发投入、市场化程度等能不同程度促进“新基建”与战略性新兴产业的耦合协调发展。

Measurement and Coupling Mechanism of the Coupling and Coordinated Development of New Infrastructure Construction and Strategic Emerging Industries

Using the data of 30 provinces in China (Excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2013 to 2018, the coupling coordination model was used to measure the development level of ‘new infrastructure’ and the coupling coordination degree between ‘new infrastructure’ and strategic emerging industries. The results showed that the development level of ‘new infrastructure’ and its three subsystems was relatively low, and the development level of innovative infrastructure was relatively the lowest. In general, the development of ‘new infrastructure’ and strategic emerging industries in various provinces has not yet reached a benign coupling state, and the risk of imbalance tends to expand. There was a lock-in effect of ‘the high was always high, the low was always low’ about the coupled and coordinated development of various provinces over the years, and the number distribution showed an ‘olive’ structure with fewer provinces at the two ends and more provinces in the middle, and then the ‘new infrastructure’ of most provinces leaded the development of their strategic emerging industries. From a molecular system perspective, the locking effect of the coupled development of ‘information infrastructure’ and strategic emerging industries was the strongest. The coupled development of ‘integrated infrastructure’ and strategic emerging industries had broken through the ‘olive’ structure, and the level of coupling and coordination of industries on ‘innovative infrastructure’ and strategic emerging industries was relatively lowest, while the three types of coupling and coordinated development of strong economic and social provinces in the eastern region all had radiation leading effects. Through further empirical testing, the article found that in addition to the driving effects of its own factors, economic agglomeration, human capital, fixed asset investment, industrial structure, R&D investment, and degree of marketization could promote the coupling and coordinated development of ‘new infrastructure’ and strategic emerging industries to varying degrees.