博台线作为中国区域发展均衡线的佐证分析——以城市温室气体排放为例

国际政治经济形势正在发生深刻变化,实现区域协调均衡发展对于形成以国内大循环为主的新发展格局至关重要。方创琳于2020年2月提出垂直于胡焕庸线的博台线可以表征中国区域发展的均衡格局。本文通过对中国338个地级市的温室气体排放水平进行分析,旨在论证博台线作为中国区域发展均衡线的合理性和可能性。结果显示：① 2015年二氧化碳（CO₂）、甲烷（CH₄）、氧化亚氮（N₂O）和含氟温室气体总量以博台线为界呈南北对称的空间分布格局,且博台线两侧各类温室气体的排放强度和人均排放量分布基本均衡,各产业部门CO₂排放强度和人均排放量的区域差异均较小;② 博台线西南半壁和东北半壁内各类温室气体排放在GDP和人口维度上总体呈均衡分布态势,且各部门CO₂排放强度和人均排放量的空间分布也较为均衡。总体而言,博台线两侧表征人类活动强度的温室气体排放水平较为均衡,一定程度上反映出其作为中国区域发展战略均衡线的科学性与合理性。

Analysis of the Bole-Taipei Line as the divide for regional coordinated development:Evidence from greenhouse gas emissions of Chinese cities

As the international political and economic situation has been undergoing profound changes, achieving regional coordinated development is essential for China to form a new development pattern dominated by the domestic economic cycle. The Bole-Taipei Line, which is perpendicular to the Hu Huanyong Line and is proposed by Professor Fang Chuanglin in February 2020, has the potential to be an appropriate representative of the coordinated and balanced line of China's regional development. By investigating the spatio-temporal distribution of greenhouse gas emissions among 338 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2015, and making use of the Theil index and the Gini coefficient that are appropriate for measuring the spatial equality on both sides of the Bole-Taipei Line and within the southwest and northeast parts, respectively, this paper attempts, for the first time, to underpin the scientific basis of the Bole-Taipei Line as China's regional coordinated development line. We find that: (1) Overall emissions of the carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and fluorinated greenhouse gas show a balanced distribution on both sides of the Bole-Taipei Line, and there are small regional differences in sectoral CO₂ emission intensity and per capita CO₂ emissions. (2) There is a generally balanced distribution of greenhouse gas emission intensity and per capita emissions, as well as the sectoral CO₂ emission intensity and per capita emissions within the southwest and northeast parts of the Bole-Taipei Line. The industrial and agricultural sectors serve as the major emitters of greenhouse gases and therefore require a low-carbon transition towards a more balanced distribution of greenhouse gas emissions on both sides of the Bole-Taipei Line. In conclusion, the greenhouse gas emissions as a measure of the magnitude of human activities on both sides of the Bole-Taipei Line are relatively balanced, which has justified the scientific robustness and rationality of the Bole-Taipei Line as a strategic line for socioeconomic development, and provided novel insights into China's regional coordinated development.