生态系统服务供给安全阈值视域下喀斯特地区生态安全演变

以贵州省为研究对象，基于生态系统服务价值构建供给安全阈值与生态安全评价模型，研究生态脆弱区生态安全时空演变。结果表明，2005—2018年：① 贵州省生态系统服务总价值从7875.38亿元增加到18 072.89亿元，年均增长6.60%，集聚高值区主要分布在黔东南州、黔南州和黔西南州等。② 贵阳市生态系统服务供给价值低于供给安全阈值，生态系统提供服务无法满足人们最低生存保障需求；其余地区生态系统服务价值仅比供给安全阈值略高，且呈减少变化。③ 贵阳市生态安全指数小于1，生态系统处于不安全状态；其余地市生态安全指数与生态安全度均呈降低变化。④ 各地市人类活动强度指数与生态安全指数、人均生态系统服务价值呈显著负相关。

Study on the Evolution of Ecological Security in Karst Area Based on the Threshold of Ecosystem Services

In this paper, we build the evaluation model of supply security threshold and ecological security degree based on ecosystem service value, and study the spatial and temporal evolution of ecological security in Guizhou Province. The results showed that from 2005 to 2018: 1) The total value of ecosystem services in Guizhou Province increased from 787.538 billion yuan to 1807.289 billion yuan, with an average annual growth of 6.60%. The high value areas of ecosystem service value agglomeration were mainly distributed in Qiandongnan Prefecture, Qiannan Prefecture, Qianxinan Prefecture and Anshun City. 2) The supply value of ecosystem services in Guiyang city was lower than the supply security threshold, indicating that the service value provided by the ecosystem has been unable to meet people's minimum food demand. In other areas, the value of ecosystem services was only slightly higher than the supply security threshold, and showed a narrowing change. 3) The ecological security index of Guiyang city was less than 1, and the ecosystem was in an unsafe state. In other areas, the ecological security index and ecological security degree decreased. 4) There was a significant negative correlation between human activity intensity index, ecological security index and per capita ecosystem service value. It is the first time to put forward the concept of security threshold of ecosystem service supply, which provides a new index for the evaluation of ecosystem security degree evolution, and has scientific significance for promoting the application of ecosystem service value theory in ecological management practice.