2020年新疆于田MS6.4地震的地震迁移趋势

根据大空间尺度上存在特殊的地震迁移并具有规律性的现象, 在回顾2020年于田M_S6.4地震的震前异常和1900年以来于田地区“始发地震—迁移地震”序列的基础上, 分析了于田M_S6.4地震的发震构造和动力学背景, 讨论了于田地区 “始发地震—迁移地震”的时空分布及其趋势。 本文侧重于对近些年于田地区地震迁移现象(如迁移方向、 时间间隔)的统计, 统计结果显示地震迁移可以作为该区域中长期地震危险性分析的方法之一, 并尝试应用于未来地震迁移趋势分析。 地震迁移现象的成因及动力机制有待于深入研究。

Migration-earthquake after the 2020 Yutian Ms6.4 Earthquake,Xinjiang

Based on the review of the anomalies before the 2020 M_S6.4 earthquake in Yutian and the sequence of strong migration- earthquakes in recent years, the seismogenic structure and dynamic of the Yutian earthquakes are analyzed. The temporal and spatial distribution of the “initiation-earthquake to migration-earthquake” in the future are discussed. According to the phenomenon of special earthquake migration and regularity in large space scale, based on the review of the pre earthquake anomalies of Yutian M_S6.4 earthquake in 2020 and the sequence of originating earthquake-migrating earthquake in Yutian region since 1900, the seismogenic structure and dynamic background of Yutian earthquake are analyzed, and the temporal and spatial distribution and trend of originating earthquake-migrating earthquake in Yutian region are discussed. This paper focuses on the statistics of earthquake migration phenomena (such as migration direction and time interval) in Yutian area in recent years. The statistical results support that earthquake migration can be used as one of the methods for medium and long-term seismic risk analysis in this area, and try to apply it to the analysis of future earthquake migration trend. The cause and dynamic mechanism of earthquake migration need to be further studied.