走滑型断层地表永久位移预测模型研究

论述了断层地表永久位移概率地震危险性分析方法的发展过程和应用现状，指出了断层地表破裂预测模型研究的意义。根据我国最近的活动断层地表破裂震后调查结果，基于走滑型断层地表破裂数据，拟合了地表破裂预测模型。采用地震活动性模型和地表破裂预测模型，计算了则木河断裂地表迹线上的永久位移危险性曲线，对预测模型在工程场地地震危险性分析中的应用，提出了建议。

Study on prediction model of surface permanent displacementof strike-slip faults

The development and state-of-art for the probabilistic fault displacement hazard assessments method were reviewed, and pointed out the significance for prediction model of fault surface rupture displacements.Based on fault displacement data from survey after large earthquakes in China during current years, the fault displacement prediction models were developed.Based on the seismic activity model and above prediction models, the hazard curves of surface permanent displacement on Zemu River fault were calculated, and the application of the prediction models in seismic hazard analysis of engineering site was suggested.