基于空间杜宾模型的中国高学历人才时空分异研究

基于2001~2016年全国统计年鉴数据，采用集聚度分析和空间自相关分析等方法，描绘中国高学历人才的空间格局及变化，并采用空间杜宾模型，探究影响高学历人才空间分布的主要因素及空间溢出效应。结果表明：（1）中国人才分布表现出较大的非均衡性，集聚程度表现为东南高、西北低，且2000~2015年间，人才稀疏区面积下降而集聚区面积上升;（2）中国人才密度的全局莫兰指数为正，表明中国的高学历人才分布具有一定的空间集聚特征，而2000~2015年此指数有所下降，表明人才分布整体上有分散趋势。2000年热点区与次级热点区主要分布于京津冀和长三角地区，其中热点区为京、津、沪；而2015年，热点以及冷点区域均有所扩张，表明局部地区人才仍然有集中化的趋势；（3）工资水平、高校发展、公共服务水平是决定人才空间分布的主要因素，但没有证据表明生活支出比、失业率、房价有显著影响。人才分布具有明显的空间溢出效应，同时工资水平、高校发展、公共服务水平等影响因素也具有明显的空间溢出效应。

Spatial pattern change of high-educated talents in China based on Spatial Durbin Model

Based on the national statistical yearbook data from 2001 to 2016,this article studied the spatial pattern changes of the distribution of high-educated talents in China and its spatial overflow effect as well as the influence mechanism by applying Durbin model, Gini index, CV index and spatial auto-correlation. The result shows that:（1）Distribution status of China's high-educated talents showed that talents are agglomerate in the southeast but sparse in the northwest. From 2000 to 2015,the area of sparse area has decreased while he area of agglomerate area has increased；（2）The distribution of high-educated talents has some spatial agglomeration characteristics. In 2000,Hot spots are the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration. However, only Beijing Tianjin and Shanghai are the highest level of agglomeration，other provinces are all cold spots. What’s more, from 2000 to 2015, the area of cold spots and hot spots both have increased which implies that talent still has a tendency to centralize in some regions；（3）Wages, the development of colleges and universities, and public service level are the main factors influencing the spatial distribution of high-educated talents and no evident can prove other factors have significant influence on the distribution of talents..The distribution of high-educated talents has significant spatial overflow effect while significant factors including Wages, the development of colleges and universities, and public service level also have significant spatial overflow effect.