塔里木河干流土地利用/覆盖变化的社会经济驱动力分析

 土地利用/覆盖变化的驱动力分析是土地利用/覆盖研究的一个主要核心内容。利用相关分析和主成分分析,探讨土地利用变化的社会经济驱动力。在驱动力分析的基础上,建立人口因素与土地利用程度的分异模型,并通过干扰度指数的计算,分析人类活动对不同景观类型的干扰强度。研究结果表明：研究区土地利用变化的主要社会经济驱动力为：人口因素、经济因素、技术因素和区域社会经济发展程度等。人类活动对建设用地的干扰强度最大,其次是林地、耕地和水域,而对于其他景观类型的干扰度则不甚明显。人口密度与土地利用程度的分异模型适用于分析现阶段人口密度与土地利用程度之间的关系,而且还可以通过预测未来人口变化状况进行土地利用程度的预测。

Analysis of Socio-economic Driving Forces on Land Use and Land Cover Change in Tarim River Basin

Analysis of socio-economic driving forces on land use and land cover change(LUCC) is one of the hot issues of LUCC research.This paper analyzed the socio-economic driving forces of LUCC in the study area by correlation analysis method and PCA(principal component analysis) method.The study also constructed the model between population and land use degree and analyzed the disturbance of human activities on different landscapes based on the estimated disturbance index.The results showed that the main socio-economic driving forces are population factors,economic factors,technological factors and regional socio-economic development degree.The disturbance of human activities to construction and urban area is the most notable,second is woodland,plantation and water area.The model not only can analyze the relationship between population and land use degree but also have certain prediction function.