天气预报技巧和价值的关系

利用一个简单的花费-损失比模型介绍了天气预报系统的技巧和其对用户的价值之间的关系。以欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报系统的控制预报和集合预报为例，对确定性预报和概率预报的情况分别进行了说明。结果表明，有技巧的天气预报系统只有在用产的花费-损矢比(C／L)在某一数值区间内时对用户才是有价值的。通过对比分析集合预报系统EPS概率预报和确定性预报的相对经济价值曲线，说明概率预报系统比一个与其质量相当的确定性预报系统具有较大的价值优势，而根据C／L选择最佳概率阈值对于实现其最大预报价值尤为重要。

Relationship Between Weather Prediction Skill and Its Economic Value

A simple cost-loss ratio decision model is used to illustrate the relationship between the skill of a weather forecasting system and its economic value. Using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system as an example, a deterministic forecast case and a probability forecast case are discussed, respectively. The comparative analysis of the relative economic value curve of EPS probability and deterministic forecasts of the ensemble forecasting system shows that the probability forecasting system is obviously superior to a deterministic forecast system with the same quality in value. The results indicate that for a forecacting syctem,it is useful for users only in the case of the cost-loss ratio C/L being in a certain range. It is very important for realizing the maximum forecast value to choose the optimal probability threshold value based on C/L.