动态实时洪水风险分析及管理系统

当前洪水风险分析按照典型设计标准洪水进行计算的模式难以满足实际防洪管理需要，为了提高洪水风险分析的实时性以及适应洪水演进的动态性，设计了动态实时洪水风险分析框架。在本框架中，先采用一维和二维动态耦合水动力学数值方法耦合溃堤模型，然后在樵桑联围防洪保护区建立洪水演进模拟模型，通过灵活处理模型计算边界条件以及动态设置溃堤功能，计算不同设计标准洪水发生时，堤防出现单一溃口或者组合溃口后保护区内洪水演进过程。按照上述框架开发了樵桑联围动态实时洪水风险图编制与管理应用系统，并利用历史洪水资料开展模型验证，验证结果表明，2008-06洪水马口站、三水站、大熬站、甘竹（一）站的实测最高水位和模型计算最高水位的绝对误差分别为-0.10、0.10、0.09、0.04 m，均满足洪水模拟精度要求。利用模型计算了西江发生200年一遇的洪水情况下，江根堤防出现溃口后的洪水流量及溃口内外洪水水位变化过程，模拟溃口宽度168 m，最大溃口洪水流量达到5 190 m³，分析了堤防溃决后3、6和24 h洪水漫延导致村落淹没情况，结果表明其满足合理性分析。

Dynamic Real-Time Flood Risk Analysis and Management System

Current flood risk analysis is mainly based on typical design standard floods, which cannot meet the needs of actual flood control management. In order to improve the real-time flood risk analysis and adapt to the dynamics of flooding, in this study, a dynamic real-time flood risk analysis framework was designed. In this framework, one-dimensional and two-dimensional dynamic coupled hydrodynamic numerical methods were used to couple the dyke breach model, and then a flooding simulation model was established in Qiaosang flood protection area. Through improvement, the flood inundation conditions can be simulated and analyzed based on real-time water conditions or arbitrary design floods. By flexibly set the boundary conditions and dynamically set the breach function, the flooding process of the protected area after single breach or combined breach was calculated. According to this framework, the dynamic real-time flood risk map compilation and management application system of the Qiaosang flood protection area was developed, and further verified by using the historical flood data. The verification results show that the absolute errors of the highest water level measured at Makou Station, Sanshui Station, Da'ao Station, and Ganzhu (1) Station during the 2008-06 flood and the highest water level calculated by the model are -0.10 m, 0.10 m, 0.09 m, and 0.04 m, respectively, which meet the requirements of the precision of flood simulation. The model was used to calculate the flood discharge and the water level inside and outside the breach of Jianggen dike when the flood occurs once every 200-year in Xijiang River, when the simulated width of the breach was 168 m, the maximum flow of the breach reached 5 190 m³. The village inundation caused by the flood of 3 h, 6 h and 24 h after the dyke breach was analyzed, and the results satisfy the rationality analysis.