Climate Change Estimates of Summer Temperature and Precipitation in the Alpine Region |
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Authors: | D Heimann V Sept |
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Institution: | DLR, Institut für Physik der Atmosph?re, We?ling, Germany, DE SAP AG, Walldorf, Germany, DE
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Abstract: | Summary Climatic changes of summer temperature and precipitation in the greater Alpine region are assessed by using statistical-dynamical
downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971–2000 and 2071–2100, summer months only) taken
from the results of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
The downscaling results for the present-day climate are compared with observations. The estimated regional climate change
during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by 3 to 5 Kelvin. The most intense
climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts
of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Increasing precipitation is simulated only over the Adriatic area and parts of
eastern central Europe.
The results are compared with observed climate trends for the last decades and results of other regional climate change estimations.
The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends (including ours) have a number of common features. However, there
are also climate change estimates of other groups which completely contradict our results.
Received April 8, 1999 Revised November 16, 1999 |
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