2008年新疆和静5.3级地震异常特征及短临跟踪回顾分析

2008年8月30日新疆和静发生5.3级地震,位于新疆年度地震危险区内。震前由本文作者组成的南天山东段6级地震危险区短临跟踪小组于2008年6月中旬提出了短临预报意见。本文回顾分析了这次地震前开展的短临跟踪的工作思路、前兆异常的分析讨论及地震短期预测等,并对地震短临跟踪预报工作做一些探讨。

Retrospective Analysis on Short-term Tracing and Prediction before Hejing M_S5.6 Earthquake in Xinjiang in 2008

The Hejing MS5.6earthquake occurred on Aug.30,2008,located in an annual seismic risk region in Xinjiang Ugyur Autonomous Region.A group formed by authors for tracing and predicting short-term earthquakes in the east wing of South Tianshan had proposed a short-term prediction in middle of June before the earthquake.In this paper,the work thinking,analysis of anomalous precursors and process of short-term prediction before the event are retrospectively analyzed.Some discussion for short-term earthquake tracing and prediction are also presented.