Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply and Flood Hazard in Ireland Using Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modelling Techniques |
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Authors: | Rosemary Charlton Rowan Fealy Sonja Moore John Sweeney Conor Murphy |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, County Kildare, Ireland |
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Abstract: | Estimates are made of changes in effective runoff at a high spatial resolution for the island of Ireland under different climate
change scenarios. The first part of the investigation examines changes in annual and seasonal effective runoff for the whole
land area of Ireland. The rainfall-runoff model HYSIM is used to carry out the hydrological simulations. The output from the
HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) is downscaled using statistical techniques to provide precipitation and evaporation data
at a 10 km × 10 km resolution; this data is then used to drive the HYSIM model. Simulations are carried out for each of the
825 10 km × 10 km grid cells covering Ireland for the baseline period (1961–1990) and two future scenarios; 2041–2070 and
2061–2090. Parameter values are derived for each square using data from the Soil Survey of Ireland and the CORINE land use
database and validation is carried out for selected catchments. The results of these simulations indicate a decrease in annual
runoff that is most marked in the east and southeast of the country, whereas an increase is likely for the extreme northwest.
The reduction in effective runoff for the east of the country is particularly marked during the summer months. It is these
areas that have highest population density and also where greatest population growth is likely to occur. During the winter
months an increase in effective runoff is suggested for the western half of country which could have implications for flood
frequency, as well as the extent and duration of winter flooding. |
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