中国第四纪气候变化和未来北方干旱灾害分析

气候异常变化不仅是气象灾害、海洋灾害、洪涝灾害、生物灾害的源头,而且由于地球及其各圈层运动的整体性和联系性,气候异常变化的激烈时期也常是地震和地质灾害的多发期。为了对未来自然灾害作出预测,文章研究了第四纪气候变化和发展规律,据此认为21世纪初虽然可能降水量有所增加,但仍属干旱期,特别是中国北方将受到干旱灾害的严重威胁,并将诱发或伴生一系列其他自然灾害。文章认为要从节流与开源并重的战略高度解决北方水资源短缺问题,只有这样才能保证社会经济的可持续发展。

CLIMATE CHANGES OF CHINA IN THE QUATERNARY PERIOD AND ANALYSIS ON DROUGHT DISASTERS OF NORTH CHINA IN THE FUTURE

Climatic anomaly is usually the source of meteorological, oceanic, hydrological and biological disasters. The periods with intense climatic abnormal changes frequently corresponds with the severe and multiple phases of seismic and geological disasters, due to interactions between atmosphere, lithosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere in the Earth system. Therefore, in order to preview the future natural disasters of China,it is very useful to understand the climate change, its development process and regularities in the Quaternary. The paper reviews the available data in detail about the Quaternary environmental changes in China and holds that the early days of 21 st century is also belonging to the drought period, although the rainfall in this stage will possibly increase more or less. Especially, the North China will face the austere challenge from extensive drought. And it may lead to serial and various induced or attendant disasters. Because of such challenge, the paper considers that, in order to resolve the problem of water resources shortage of the North China, and thus to guarantee the social-economical sustainable development of this region. The strategy of attaching importance both to reducing expenditure and to broadening source is therefore very necessary.