中国电力强度重心迁移及差异研究

电力资源在中国能源建设以及能源发展方式转变中处于中心地位，全面降低电力强度是实现资源、经济、环境可持续发展的关键所在。研究中国电力强度重心迁移路径以及区域差异可以厘清电力强度分布状况，对实现上述目标具有现实意义。本文运用重心理论研究了中国1985-2014年电力强度重心迁移路径，进而采用泰尔指数计算并分解了电力强度非均衡程度。研究结果表明：1985-2014年，电力强度总体上呈现出持续向西迁移的态势。期间，1985-1993、2003-2014年主要体现为向西北方向移动，1993-2003年则表现为向西南方向移动的特征。1985-2000年，区域间及区域内部差异对于重心迁移的贡献率各占50%；2000-2014年，演变推力主要来源于区域内部差异，贡献率均值为54.49%，内部差异则受西北、西南、华北地区影响最大。

The Movement of Power Consumption Intensity Gravity Center and the Decomposition of Difference in China

Power resources is at the center of China's energy construction and energy development mode change，at the same time, how to reduce the power intensity is the key to realize the sustainable development of our country's resources, economy and environment. Therefore, the study on the migration path of power consumption intensity gravity center and the regional difference can clarify the situation of China's power intensity at present. By using the theory of gravity, the author has studied the migration path of electricity intensity in China 1985-2014 , and then calculated the disequilibrium degree of China's power intensity adopting Theil index . The results show that in the period 1985-2014, electric power intensity in China takes on a tendency of continuing to west migration, during the sample, in the year of 1985-1993 and 2003-2014,the orientation of migration is northwest, but the orientation of migration is southwest in the year of 1993-2003.In 1985-2000 the contribution of the power intensity between the different regions and internal differences to the movement of power consumption intensity gravity center are 50%.2000-2014,the average ratio of contribution from internal difference is 54.49%, the effect from northwest. southwest and north China can account for the internal difference.