| 交通气象服务效益评估——以沪宁高速公路为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴先华,赵飞,郭际,陈云峰,姚小芹.交通气象服务效益评估——以沪宁高速公路为例[J].气象科学,2013,33(5):555-560. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴先华 赵飞 郭际 陈云峰 姚小芹 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 中国制造业发展研究院, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 经济管理学院, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 中国制造业发展研究院, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 经济管理学院, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 中国制造业发展研究院, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 经济管理学院, 南京 210044;中国气象局 气象宣传与科普中心, 北京 100081;南京信息工程大学 中国制造业发展研究院, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 经济管理学院, 南京 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金资助项目(11CGL100);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806017);教育部人文社科项目青年基金资助项目(09YJC 630128);中国博士后基金资助项目(20090461132) |
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| 摘 要： | 将支付意愿法与结构方程模型相结合,应用路径分析的方法评估沪宁高速公路的气象服务效益值。首先按照支付意愿法设计调查问卷,实地发放并回收240份问卷;然后构建了结构方程模型,提出系列假设,绘制变量间的因果关系图,测算各变量与气象服务效益值之间的相关关系值,得到有益的结论:沪宁公路老客户和驾龄长的司机,更愿意支付气象服务费用;提高气象服务质量能提高司机的支付意愿。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象服务 结构方程模型 效益评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/10/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2/1/2013 12:00:00 AM |
The value estimation of traffic meteorological service based on Shanghai-Nanjing expressway example |
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| WU Xianhu,ZHAO Fei,GUO Ji,CHEN Yunfeng and YAO Xiaoqin.The value estimation of traffic meteorological service based on Shanghai-Nanjing expressway example[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2013,33(5):555-560. |
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| Authors: | WU Xianhu ZHAO Fei GUO Ji CHEN Yunfeng and YAO Xiaoqin |
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| Institution: | Institute of Manufacturing Development of China, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Institute of Manufacturing Development of China, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Institute of Manufacturing Development of China, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;Institute of Manufacturing Development of China, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | By combining the method of willingness to pay and structural equation modeling, this paper analyzes the meteorological service benefit on Shanghai-Nanjing expressway. Firstly, 240 answers for survey from drivers wre given to provide background information and evaluation of the meteorological services. Secondly, assumptions were put forward and a causal relationship diagram among the variables was found by theoretical analysis. Thirdly, the meteorological services were calculated and correlation between variables and meteorological services was estimated. Lastly, beneficial conclusions were obtained: regular customers and drivers with long driving ages prefer to pay for the meteorological services; improving meteorological service quality would improve drivers willingness to pay. |
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| Keywords: | Meteorological service Structural equation modeling Benefit evaluation |
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