港口城区房地产投资驱动机制分析——以连云港市港口城区为例

房地产投资驱动机制分析是研究房地产业发展规律的重要组成部分,也是调控政策关注的焦点。该文在理论分析的基础上,选取在我国经济发展占有重要地位的沿海港口城区为实证分析对象,通过构建计量模型定量表达我国沿海港口城区房地产投资驱动机制。结果表明:理论上判断,影响港口城区房地产投资驱动机制的因素可以分为经济、社会和行政3种类型,且区域经济发展综合水平、农业发展水平等20项因子对房地产投资有着重要影响;实证结果显示,连云港市港口城区房地产投资的第一驱动力、第二驱动力、第三驱动力分别为政策导向下的港口城区建设、港口城区中的农业成分比重、港口城区的劳动力供给,影响度分别达到0.372、-0.154、0.058。研究结论能够为房地产投资的预测和调控提供科学依据。

Study on Driven Forces of Real Estate Investment in Port District:A Case Study of the Port District in Lianyungang

The research on driving force of real estate investment is an important part of the research in real estate development law,as well as the attention focus of control policy.Based on theoretical analysis,this paper selected the port city which played an important role in China′s economic development as the empirical analysis.And the drive mechanism of real estate investment in port district was expressed quantitatively through measurement model.The results showed:First,judged in theory,the drive mechanism factors of real estate investment could be divided into social,economic and administrative types.And the regional economic development,agricultural development and other 20 factors had important influence on real estate investment.Second,empirical results showed that the first driving force,the second driving force,the third driving force of real estate investment in the port district of Lianyungang were respectively the port district construction under the policy guidance,the port district′s agricultural component proportion,the port district′s labor supply.Their effect respectively achieved 0.372,-0.154 and 0.058.Research conclusion can be used to provide the scientific basis for the forecast and control of the real estate investment.