| 冬季西、北江径流量异常的前期海-气背景场特征 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 游大伟,汤超莲,邓松.冬季西、北江径流量异常的前期海-气背景场特征[J].广东气象,2006(1):18-21. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 游大伟 汤超莲 邓松 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国海洋大学,山东青岛,266003;国家海洋局南海分局,广东广州,510300
2. 国家海洋局南海分局,广东广州,510300 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家海洋局青年海洋科学基金;国家海洋局资助项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 1990年以来珠江口出现7次强咸潮,主要原因是珠江流域秋、冬季少雨,西、北江径流减少。根据实测资料,分析西、北江流域近50年来冬季径流量变化特点,从大尺度海-气相互作用出发,分析冬季径流量减少的前期海-气特征,得出E l N ino与La N ina发生次年冬季,西、北江径流量出现负距平的机率分别为10/14和10/11,与副高强弱有关。这在冬季径流量预报及珠江口咸潮超前预警上有重要参考价值。并据此预测2005/2006冬季径流量为负距平,极可能再次出现强咸潮。
|
| 关 键 词： | 西、北江流域 冬季径流量 厄尔尼诺 强咸潮 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-6190（2006）01-0018-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-12-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年12月6日 |
The Early Atmosphere-Ocean Characteristics for Discharge Abnormity of Xijiang and Beijiang River in Winter |
| |
| You Da-wei,Tang Chao-lian,Deng Song.The Early Atmosphere-Ocean Characteristics for Discharge Abnormity of Xijiang and Beijiang River in Winter[J].Journal of Guangdong Meteorology,2006(1):18-21. |
| |
| Authors: | You Da-wei Tang Chao-lian Deng Song |
| |
| Abstract: | Severe saltwater intrusions(SSI) at Pearl River estuary have occurred 7 times during winter since 1990,mainly due to the lack of rainfall in the drainage areas of Pearl River and the subsequent low discharge of Xijiang and Beijiang rivers.Based on 50-year observational data,beginning with large scale Atmosphere-Ocean interaction,the author analyzes the early Atmosphere-Ocean characteristics for the cases with discharge reduction in winter.Results show that the probabilities of negative discharge anomaly of Xijiang and Beijiang rivers in winter of the year after EI Nino or La Nina are 10/14 and 10/11 respectively,which is in correlation with activities of subtropical high.This can be used as a signal for river discharge forecasting and the early warning of saltwater intrusion at Pearl River estuary. |
| |
| Keywords: | the drainage area of Xijiang and Beijiang river river discharge in winter El Nino severe saltwater intrusion |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
