国家气象中心数值预报业务的进展

在最近的１５年中，国家气象中心的数值预报业务高速度发展，预报模式从北半球模式发展为全球谱模式，并配套建立了资料同化系统和用于降水预报的有限区预报模式，暴雨和台风预报模式正在研制中。目前数值预报时效已延至７天，Ｔ６３９３丙上时的预报水平已优于的数值预报产品的应用技术在不断改进，最高（低）气温下两天ＭＯＳ预报精度已接近预报员制作的综合预报结果。

The Advance of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in National Meteorological Center

bvious progress has been made in the NWP of the National Meteorological Center in resent 15 years.The numerical prediction models were developed from a Northern hemisphere model to global spectrum model with a data assimilation system and a limited area model for precipitation forecasting. The prediction models for heavy rain and typhoon track are under development.At present,the valid time of the operational NWP has extended up to 7 days. The skill of present model T63's 96 hours prediction is better than that of the 48 hours prediction five years ago.The applied technology of NWP has been developing continuously.