On some future tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean

Possible tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean, especially in its northeastern part, are discussed in relation to a predicted major earthquake in the Shumagin Seismic Gap (located in the eastern part of the Aleutian Island Chain) and to a major eruption of the St. Augustine volcano in Cook Inlet, Alaska. The deep-water propagation of the tsunami generated in the Shumagin Gap is simulated through the use of a spherical polar coordinate grid of the approximate size of 14km. The tsunami generated by the St. Augustine volcano is studied through the fine mesh grid confined to the Cook Inlet only. The numerical models were calibrated against historical tsunami data. The properties of the tsunami signal are described by the maximum amplitude which occurs in the tsunami record. This allows us to single out the direction along which a maximum tsunami is to be expected.Presented at the International Conference on Natural and Man-Made Hazards in Coastal Zones, held in Ensenada, Mexico, August 1988.