人均综合用水量方法预测需水量-观察未来社会用水的有效途径

科学的需水预测是水资源规划和供水工程建设的重要依据.过去,我国水资源规划部门对需水量的预测普遍偏高,造成对水规划和供水工程在不同程度上的误导.1987年,笔者在分析研究国内外预测资料的基础上.提出人均综合用水量加趋势微调方法(以下简称人均用水量法)预测全国需水量,实践证明这方法是有效的,成果是可信的.本文介绍这一创新的预测方法的概念与其应用,与过去有关部门预测成果进行比较,并展望本世纪我国水资源可持续利用的前景,以供水资源规划和供水工程建设部门参考.

Forecast Water demand by the method of Comprehensive Water use per capita - Effective Way for Observing Water Use in Future Society

The scientific water demand forecast is an important basis for water resources planning and water supply project construction. In the past, the planning department of water resources in our country generally forecasted the water demand on the high side, which has mislead the water planning and supply project in different extent. In 1978, On the basis of study and analysis the relevant forecast data at home and abroad, the author puts forward to forecast water demand of the whole country by the comprehensive water use per capita and trend inching adjustment method (hereinafter the water use per capita method), the practice has been proved that this method is effectively and its result is credible. The article introduces its concept and application and compares with the past achievement of relevant departments to view of the perspective of sustainable utilization of water resources of our country in this century, for reference to the departments of water resources planning and water supply project construction.