The dynamics of velocity fluctuations in the solar wind – I. Coronal mass ejections

In this paper we present a simple, analytic model for the dynamical evolution of supersonic velocity fluctuations at the base of the ambient solar wind. These fluctuations result in the formation of dense working surfaces that travel down the wind. It is shown how the initial parameters of the fluctuations (velocity, density and duration) are related to the characteristics of the working surfaces far from the Sun (for instance at the Earth). We apply the model to the evolution of the coronal mass ejections in the IP medium, finding that the model is in good agreement with satellite observations of these phenomena, thus providing physical insight into their dynamical evolution. Our model may contribute to future 'space weather forecasting' on the Earth, based on detailed satellite monitoring of the solar corona.