Potential Hazards of Eruptions around the Tianchi Caldera Lake, China

Since the eruption of the Tianchi volcano about 1000 years ago, there have been at least 3 to 5 eruptions of small to moderate size. In addition, hazardous avalanches, rock falls and debris flows have occurred during periods between eruptions. A future eruption of the Tianchi volcano is likely to involve explosive interaction between magma and the caldera lake. The volume of erupted magma is almost in a range of 0.1-0.5 km3. Tephra fallout may damage agriculture in a large area near the volcano. If only 1% of the lake water were ejected during an eruption and then precipitated over an area of 200 km2, the average rainfall would be 100 mm. Moreover, lahars are likely to occur as both tephra and water ejected from the caldera lake fall onto flanks of the volcano. Rocks avalanching into the caldera lake also would bring about grave hazards because seiches would be triggered and lake water with the volume equal to that of the landslide would spill out of the existing breach in the caldera and cause flooding downstream.