| Prediction of Typhoon Tracks Using Dynamic Linear Models |
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| 作者姓名： | Keon-Tae SOHN H. Joe KWON Ae-Sook SUH |
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| 作者单位： | [1]PusanNationalUniversity,Pusan,609-735,Korea [2]KongjuNationalUniversity,Koniu,314-701,Korea [3]MeteorologicalResearchInstitute/KMA,Seoul,156-010,Korea |
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| 基金项目： | the project“A study on improving forecast skill using a su-
percomputer”of Meteorological Research Institute,KMA,
2001. |
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| 摘 要： | This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis of typhoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive model for the prediction of typhoon tracks.
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| 关 键 词： | 台风预报 天气预报 动力学线性模型 系统误差 |
| 收稿时间： | 15 May 2002 |
Prediction of typhoon tracks using dynamic linear models |
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| Keon-Tae SOHN,H. Joe KWON,Ae-Sook SUH.Prediction of Typhoon Tracks Using Dynamic Linear Models[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2003,20(3):379-384. |
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| Authors: | Keon-Tae Sohn H Joe Kwon Ae-Sook Suh |
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| Institution: | Pusan National University, Pusan, 609-735, Korea,Kongju National University, Konju, 314-701, Korea,Meteorological Research Institute/KMA, Seoul, 156-010, Korea |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models havetheir own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statisticalmodel called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis oftyphoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive modelfor the prediction of typhoon tracks. |
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| Keywords: | typhoon track forecast systematic error dynamic linear model |
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