基于SPA的喀斯特地区水安全评价——以贵州省为例

根据目前公认的水安全内涵，将水安全分为三个子系统。水资源子系统、水环境子系统和水灾害子系统。三者相互联系、相互作用，形成了复杂、时变的水安全系统。基于水安全的基本原理和喀斯特区域特有的水循环机理，依据 “驱动力（D）—压力（P）—状态（S）—影响（I）—响应（R）”模型建立了贵州省喀斯特区域水安全评价指标体系。基于集对分析理论，引入能够体现系统确定性和不确定性的同异反联系度计算公式，建立了城市水安全的评价模型。将集对分析法运用到水安全的评价中, 可以先通过计算评价样本与评价指标之间的联系度对样本作初步的排序, 再对样本作进一步的同一、差异、对立的集对分析，以判断出评价样本的等级。研究结果表明:（1）在水资源安全状态方面，贵州省9个州市中4个处于安全状态，2个处于基本安全状态，2个处于不安全状态，1个处于危机状态；（2）在水环境安全状态方面，2个处于安全状态，4个处于基本安全，3个处于不安全；（3）在水灾害安全状态方面，1个处于非常安全，4个处于安全，1个处于基本安全，2个处于不安全，1个处于危机；（4）在水安全综合状态下，有3个处于安全状态，有4个处于基本安全状态，有2个处于不安全状态，没有处于非常安全和危机状态。 

The assessment of water security in karst region by SPA model:A case study of Guizhou Province

Water resource is irreplaceable in natural ecosystem and socio-economic system. Its safety is of great importance. According to the concept of water security, the water security system is divided into three parts, i.e. water resource sub-system, water environment sub-system and water disaster sub-system. The three sub-systems are interrelated and interacted, forming the complex and dynamic water security system. Based on the basic principle of water security and the specific water circulation mechanism in karst area, this paper improved the “DPSIR" model to establish the evaluation index system of water security in Guizhou karst area. The five types of indicators fully describe the comprehensive situation of water security. Using set pair analysis theory, the hierarchies of water safety status in Guizhou were divided into five grades: very safe, safe, acceptable, unsafe and very unsafe. The results demonstrate that: (1) in terms of water resource, four cities are “safe”; two are “acceptable”; two are ”unsafe”; one is “very unsafe”. (2) In terms of water environment, two cities are ”safe”; four are “acceptable”; three are ”unsafe”. (3) in terms of water disaster , four cities are “safe”; two are “unsafe”; one is “acceptable” and one is “very safe”; one in crisis. (4) In terms of comprehensive water security, three cities are “safe”; four are “acceptable”; two are “unsafe”. The status of water security is closely related to the social and economic development.