Potential impact of climate change on snow cover area in the Tarim River basin

Two data sets, annual temperature and precipitation time series from 19 observation stations in the Tarim River basin covering 1958 through 2002, were investigated by non-parametric tests to detect the trend and features of climate change and variability. Based on these data, the snow cover area (SCA) in situ for the period 1982–2001 was further analyzed to examine the effect of climate change on snow. The results showed that both the temperature and precipitation had a jump in the mid 1980s and significantly increased in winter and summer, respectively. The SCA of the entire basin showed a slowly increasing trend. Responses of the SCA to temperature and precipitation in the northern, western and southern regions showed that the effect of precipitation on SCA is larger than that of temperature. In vertical direction, the SCA in the zone below 2,500 m a.s.l. kept a slow increase, but that in the zone above 2,500 m a.s.l. was inching down. Comparatively, the lower altitude zone was apt to be affected by precipitation, while the higher altitude zone tended to be influenced by temperature. The mid zone from 2,500 to 5,000 m was the area most sensitive to and affected by climate change. Compared with that in the 1980s, both the snowing and melting rates were higher in the 1990s. Correlation analysis implied that the SCA change in the cold season was positively correlated with the contemporary precipitation change, but had no strong correlation with the contemporary temperature change.