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| A numerical predicting method on monthly seismic tendency | |
| 作者姓名： | 黎令仪 刘德富 康春丽 韩延本 |
| 作者单位： | Center for Analysis and Prediction，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100036，China，National Astronomical Observatory，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100012，China，Center for Analysis and Prediction，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100036，China，National Astronomical Observatory，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100012，China，Center for Analysis and Prediction，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100036，China，National Astronomical Observatory，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100012，China |
| 基金项目： | NationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(10373017). |
| 摘 要： | IntroductionEarthquakepredictionisanundertakingofpublicwelfare,butearthquakecannotbesuccessfullypredictedatthepresentstageduetotechnologicalreasons.Howtoadaptthepresentsituationofearthquakepredictiontotheneedofsocietyisasubjectthatshouldbestudiedearnestly.Logicallyspeaking,themostimportantproblemindisasterpreventionisthemagnitudeofthecomingearthquake(becauseitconcernstherangeandinvestmentforprevention);Thesecondproblemisthemostdangerousseismiczone(becauseitconcernstheconcretearrangementforprev… |
| 收稿时间： | 2 June 2003 |
| 修稿时间： | 16 January 2004 |
A numerical predicting method on monthly seismic tendency |
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| Li Ling-yi , Liu De-fu , Kang Chun-li and Han Yan-ben.A numerical predicting method on monthly seismic tendency[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),2004,17(5):585-588. | |
| Authors: | Li Ling-yi Liu De-fu Kang Chun-li and Han Yan-ben |
| Institution: | 1. Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing,100036,China;National Astronomical Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100012,China 2. Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing,100036,China 3. National Astronomical Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100012,China |
| Abstract: | Considering the deficiency of using vague language in predicting monthly seismic tendency, we propose a numerical predicting method in the paper, which may be more applicable to the society. The method is based on the self-rhythm phenomenon of earthquake activities, which calculates monthly seismic tendency through nonlinear mathematical model. The result of modeling test shows that there exists a kind of seismic cyclic process of every 7 to 8 months in Chinese mainland, and the average error from comparing monthly predicted and observed earthquake magnitudes is below 0.2. Thus the method is more applicable to the society than the experiential prediction. |
| Keywords: | seismic tendency self-rhythm numerical model prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ | |