| 台风移速突变的诊断分析及路径预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 仲荣根.台风移速突变的诊断分析及路径预报[J].海洋湖沼通报,1994(2):149-154. |
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| 作者姓名： | 仲荣根 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学大气科学系 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用台风移动方程对作用在台风上的各力进行了诊断分析：主要力是气压梯度力和地转偏向力，二者同量级，其他各力约小１－３个量级；当台风加速移动时，气压梯度力小于地转编向力；减速移动时，气压梯度力大于地转偏向力。用预报方程计算得到的台风路径与实际台风路径在趋势上近于一致，预报误差约为２００ｋｍ。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风 路径预报 移速 诊断分析 |
DIAGNOSTIC STUDY ON SPEED CATASTROPHE AND TRACK PREDICTION FOR TYPHOONS |
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| Zhong Ronggen.DIAGNOSTIC STUDY ON SPEED CATASTROPHE AND TRACK PREDICTION FOR TYPHOONS[J].Transaction of Oceanology and Limnology,1994(2):149-154. |
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| Authors: | Zhong Ronggen |
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| Institution: | Zhongshan University |
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| Abstract: | The forces which control the moving of a typhoon are diagnosed by means of the typhoon moving equations. The results show that both the pressure gradient force and the Coriolis force are of the same order that is 101~103 greater than the other forces. The pressure gradient force is greater than the Coriolis force for an accelerated typhoon, and less than the Coriolis force for a decelerated one. In addition, the typhoon track predicted by the equations is in agreement with the observation in trend, with an error of about 200km/24h. |
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| Keywords: | Typhoon speed catastrophe track prediction |
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