塔里木河干流径流损耗及其人类活动影响强度变化

依据塔里木河干流1957-2008 年的年径流量监测数据，计算出干流年径流损耗量，利用线性回归法，对干流年径流损耗量时间序列变化趋势进行分析，建立影响径流损耗的社会经济指标体系，运用层次分析法和权重加权法剖析人类活动影响强度变化趋势，并探讨人为径流损耗的主要原因。研究结果表明：① 近50 多年来，塔河干流年径流损耗量表现出递减变化趋势，但上、中、下游存在差异，上游增加显著，增速约为2.09×10⁸ m³/10a，而中、下游递减趋势显著，减速分别为1.61×10⁸ m³/10a 和2.30×10⁸ m³/10a；② 干流来水量与径流损耗量之间呈明显的正相关，R² = 0.9996，可认为来水量减少是诱发径流损耗量减少的直接原因；③ 人类活动强度指数与人为径流损耗量之间亦呈显著的正相关，R² = 0.9822，说明自20 世纪70 年代中期开始，随着人类活动强度的逐渐增大，人类活动对径流损耗的干扰就处于一个扩大和加重的过程；④ 人口增长、产业结构调整、居民对物质经济的追求等社会经济活动是引起人为径流损耗量增加的主要原因。

Changes of Runoff Consumption and Its Human Influence Intensity in the Mainstream of Tarim River

Based on the monitoring data of annual runoff in the mainstream of Tarim River from 1957 to 2008, runoff consumption is calculated in the mainstream, and then the time series variation tendency of runoff consumption in the mainstream is analyzed by using linear regression method. The results can be drawn as follows. (1) In recent more than 50 years, runoff consumption shows a decreasing tendency on the whole, but the upper, middle and lower reaches are different. The upper reaches increases significantly with the highest rate, being approximately 2.09 × 10⁸ m³/10a, but the middle and lower reaches display a remarkably decreasing tendency, with a rate of 1.61×10⁸ m³/10a and 2.30×10⁸ m³/10a, respectively. (2) The input water volume and runoff consumption have a good positive correlation with R² = 0.9996 in the mainstream, suggesting that the water volume reduction is immediate cause of runoff consumption decrease. (3) Human activities intensity indexes and artificial runoff consumption also show significantly positive correlation, R² = 0.9822 between them, which indicates that since the mid-1970s, with gradual increase of human activities intensity, human activities interference on runoff consumption has been expanding and aggravating.