北京"12·7"降雪过程的分析研究

对2001年12月7日一次引发北京交通堵塞的降雪过程的成因进行了分析.通过对各种资料,包括北京325 m气象塔获取的特殊观测资料的分析,认为这次降雪过程属于较为常见的"回流天气"型.但由于该系统的信息较弱,给预报增加了难度.对于改进预报的可能性作了一些探讨,并对一些相关问题提出了看法.

A Study on Snowfall in Beijing on 7 December 2001

A light snowfall with precipitation amount of 1.8 mm/ d occurred in Beijing on 7 December 2001 and the serious traffic jam appeared. For better understanding of the snowfall process, the circulations, synoptic systems have been investigated. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The moisture transportation in PBL by the eastern current from the Yellow Sea and East China Sea pay a very important role in the process. (2) The trough (or short wave) at 500 hPa from West China overlay on the maximum area of moisture flux convergence to initiate and enhance the upward motion. (3) It is very difficult to predict successfully the snowfall in Beijing of 7 December 2001 due to the shallow of the systems, however, the higher time and space resolution data from the 325 m meteorological tower can reveal the finer and detailed structure of snowfall process. (4) It is suggested that more special data is needed and the cloud physical processes, including stratum cloud, and planetary boundary layer, in the numerical model should be improved farther, if the better prediction is expected. (5) The observation and prediction on real time ground temperature should be conducted so that condition of the roads can be estimated earlier. (6) In addition, some problems beyond meteorology, for example, roads and bridges construction, traffic management and so on should be paid more attention to in the future.