净举力及常规可控气象要素对探空高度的影响研究

为提高探空气球的施放高度,利用克拉玛依国家基本气象站2011年以来的观测数据作为研究对象,选取净举力、天气现象、风向、风速、温度、气压、湿度、降水量8个影响因子,突破以往定性的研究模式,首次从定量的角度通过大量实验数据借助SPSS软件构建了多元线性回归模型,比较深入地研究了探空高度与净举力及常规可控气象要素之间的关系,对该模型进行了检验优化,确定了最优的回归模型,并对模型进行了预测验证。研究结果表明,该模型预测效果良好,能有效地应用到克拉玛依探空气象的实际观测工作中。根据上述研究结果,总结出了不同天气下净举力的选取范围,从而为克拉玛依探空提供具有实际可操作性的作业指导。

Study on the Height Sounding Influence of Free Lifting Force and Conventional Controllable Meteorological Factors

In order to improve the the height of sounding balloons, using the observation data of Karamay National Basic Meteorological Station since 2010 as the research object, and selecting free lifting force, weather condition, wind direction, wind speed, temperature, air pressure, humidity and precipitation as the influence factors, this paper constructs the multiple linear regression model from the quantitative point of view with a large number of experimental data for the first time from the quantitative point of view, and deeply studies the relationship between the height of the sounding and the free lifting force and the conventional controllable meteorological elements. The model is optimized, and the optimal regression model is determined,and at last the model is tested. The results show that the model is effective and can be applied to the observation work of Karamay sounding weather. Finally, based on the above findings, the range of selection of the free lifting force in different weather is summarized, which provides practical operational guidance for Karamay sounding.