南极数值天气预报应用与研究进展

多个业务化的全球预报模式和有限区域预报模式应用于南极地区,已经成为南极天气预报和南极气候诊断研究的主要工具.现今南极地区的数值天气预报模式在模拟南极大气环流和天气系统方面性能不够理想,原因是多方面的:南极天气气候的特殊性(包括边界层的参数化、中尺度气旋等)、模式对南极复杂地形的描述不够充分、由于缺乏观测资料而使得模式的...

APPLICATION OF AND RESEARCH ON NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION IN THE ANTARCTIC

Several operational global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been used as the major tools for real-time weather forecast and climate diagnostics studies in Antarctica. The models nowadays have relative poor skill in simulating the broadscale circulation and weather systems of Antarctica. The reasons consist of (1) the particularity of the weather and climate over Antarctica, including the parameterization of the boundary layer and mesoscale cyclones, (2) poor representation of Antarctic topography and surface features, (3) inadequate initial conditions resulting from the sparse observational network. However, owing to the further study of the Antarctic general circulation of atmosphere and higher resolution of models and increasing varied observation data, NWP models for Antarctica have been showing more and more powerful skill in recent years. This paper introduced several NWP models for Antarctica, and summarized the modeling researches of weather and climate over Antarctica, followed by the overview of evaluation and comparison of the NWP models performance.