单体危岩崩塌灾害风险评价方法——以四川省丹巴县危岩崩塌体为例

综合分析国内外危岩崩塌风险评价方法的基础上，以丹巴县双拥路危岩崩塌体为例，提出了适用于单体危岩崩塌的风险评价方法。根据蒙特卡洛法的基本原理及方法编制了危岩崩塌体的稳定性可靠度分析程序，计算了不同工况下危岩失稳的概率。同时，考虑地面建筑物对落石的阻挡影响，利用专业软件模拟落石的运动轨迹，并根据研究区的地形地貌特点进一步确定了落石的影响范围。在野外调查和收集当地社会经济资料的基础上，开展了承灾体的易损性研究，对资产的易损性进行了评价。根据危岩失稳的概率及承灾体的易损性分析，进一步得到不同工况下落石影响区内承灾体的经济损失水平，对危岩崩塌灾害的风险进行了定量评价。风险评价的结果可为危岩崩塌灾害影响区的城镇建设和规划提供科学依据，从而有效地规避风险和减灾防灾。

Risk assessment method for single rockfall geo-disaster: a case study on the rockfall in Danba County, Sichuan, China

Based on international and domestic rockfall risk assessment practice, this paper has put forward the risk assessment method for single rockfall geo-disaster taking an example of rockfall in Danba County, Sichuan, China. Furthermore, reliance analysis program of dangerous rock stability is compiled based on basic principle of Monte-Carlo, and probability of instabilities under different conditions are calculated. At the same time, the author takes into account the impact of ground buildings which can block the falling rocks, motion trajectories of falling rocks are simulated in using professional software, moreover, in accordance with the topography of study area, the influence scope is delineated also. Vulnerability research of the disaster-bearing bodies and assets hawe been developed according to the field investigation and local social economic data. In light of above probability and vulnerability analysis, economic loss within the influenced area under different conditions and rockfall risk has been undertaken. These results can provid scientific basis for civil construction and planning in the influenced area to avoid and reduce geo-hazards effectively.