基于岩溶水动态的岩溶地面塌陷预测预报方法

由于突发性、影响因素多样性等特点，岩溶地面塌陷的预测预报目前只能做到区域上的危险区划定，而不能实现危险区内何时、何处发生塌陷的预测预报。已有岩溶地面塌陷调查结果表明，岩溶地面塌陷的发生是有前兆的，即附近水井会提前出现水位波动大、水浑浊等现象。本文据此提出了建立健全岩溶水监测网络，对岩溶水位、水量、浊度及主要化学组分等指标进行实时动态监测，结合岩溶水流向等参数，实现短时间（数小时至数日）、小范围（小于监测网络间距）的较高精度岩溶地面塌陷预测预报的方法，并以山东省莱芜市孟家庄地区为例做了简要说明。 

Prediction of karst ground collapse based on karst water regime

Due to the characteristics of sudden occurrence and diversity of influencing factors, the forecasting and prediction of karst ground collapse can only be defined in the area of dangerous areas, and it is impossible to predict when and where the dangerous area will occur.The existing investigation results of karst surface collapse show that the occurrence of karst surface collapse is precursory, that is, the water level fluctuation and turbidity of nearby wells will occur ahead of time. Based on this, this paper proposes to establish a sound groundwater observation network and carry on the real-time dynamic monitoring of karst water level, water volume, water turbidity and main chemical components, and can be combining with karst water flow parameters to achieve the higher precision karst ground collapse prediction for short time (hours to days) in small range (less than the monitoring network spacing) .It is illustrated by the Mengjiazhuang area of Laiwu City, Shandong Province.Due to the characteristics of sudden occurrence and diversity of influencing factors, the forecasting and prediction of karst ground collapse can only be defined in the area of dangerous areas, and it is impossible to predict when and where the dangerous area will occur.The existing investigation results of karst surface collapse show that the occurrence of karst surface collapse is precursory, that is, the water level fluctuation and turbidity of nearby wells will occur ahead of time. Based on this, this paper proposes to establish a sound groundwater observation network and carry on the real-time dynamic monitoring of karst water level, water volume, water turbidity and main chemical components, and can be combining with karst water flow parameters to achieve the higher precision karst ground collapse prediction for short time (hours to days) in small range (less than the monitoring network spacing) .It is illustrated by the Mengjiazhuang area of Laiwu City, Shandong Province.