北大西洋涛动和北极涛动与新疆河川径流变化

分析了冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)和北极涛动(AO)与新疆天山南北不同流域河川径流变化的关系.结果表明:影响北半球气温、降水等气候驱动因子的NAO和AO同样与新疆河川径流的变化具有显著的遥相关.在年际变化上,NAO和AO的强弱分别与径流变化的相关性具有明显的区域性差异;在年代际尺度上,NAO和AO有超前于新疆河流年径流5 a的显著相关,相关关系分别超过了95%和99%置信水平.NAO和AO变化对预测新疆河川径流的变化有很好的实际意义.

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation on River Runoff over Xinjiang Region, China

An analysis of the relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),Arctic Oscillation(AO) and river runoff throughout Xinjiang region of China was presented.The results suggest that the NAO and AO,which drives the climate change of the Northern Hemisphere,have a significant teleconnection with river runoff in Xinjiang Region.One can see that the NAO and AO affect the river runoff in Xinjiang region.The correlations between NAO and AO and river runoff have notable regional difference throughout the region.It is found that the influence of NAO and AO over the last 50 years has a 5-year lag effect on the river runoff in Xinjiang Region.The correlation coefficients are 0.343 and 0.512,with significant levels of 95% and 99%,respectively.