基于元胞自动机民勤绿洲湖区荒漠化演化预测

民勤湖区是民勤绿洲中生态环境最为恶劣的地区,土地荒漠化问题十分突出。以民勤绿洲湖区为例,解译1992年、1998年、2002年和2006年TM卫星影像,分析其荒漠化动态变化情况,利用ArcObjects模块结合地理元胞自动机理论构造荒漠化动态模拟模型,通过对比2006年的预测数据与实际数据,对模型进行参数调整和预测检验。预测结果表明,模型预测的准确性达到90%。最后对2012年该区土地利用状况做出预测,进而对荒漠化的发展趋势进行预测分析。

Desertification Evolution Prediction for Lake Area of Minqin Oasis Based on Integration of GIS and Cellular Automata

The ecological environment in the Lake area is the worst among Minqin oasis, where the groundwater level drops year by year, but its mineralization degree rises year by year. These have resulted in desertification getting more and more serious. The TM remote images in 1992, 1998, 2002 and 2006 over the Lake area of the Minqin oasis were interpreted to analyze the desertification evolution. Through the combination of ArcObjects module and Cellular Automata Model, a model simulating the desertification dynamics was set up. The forecasting accuracy of this model can reach 90%. In comparison of the predicted data with the actual ones, the parameters of this Cellular Automata Model were adjusted. The desertification situation in 2012 was forecasted by this model. The results showed that, from 2006 to 2012, the green land area will reduce 999.92 hm2, the desertification land area reduce 3 000.68 hm2, and sand land area will increase 4 000.6 hm2. The sand land will be more widespread, and 18% sand land will distribute in the middle of green land of the Lake area. Namely, more and more abandoned land in the green land will be transformed into sand land. As a result, this will intensify the desertification degree.