不同气候变化情景下中国血吸虫病传播的范围与强度预估

旨在采用区域气候模型PRECIS模拟的A2、B2两种温室气体排放情景下,预估2050年时段(2046—2050年)和2070年时段(2066—2070年)我国血吸虫病的传播范围和强度的变化状况。结果表明,相对2005年时段(1991—2005年),2050年和2070年时段A2、B2情景下血吸虫病分布范围的北界线出现北移,在中国东部尤其是江苏和安徽省境内北移明显。2050年时段,A2、B2情景下的血吸虫病潜在北界线分布相似。长江、洞庭湖及鄱阳湖周围的血吸虫传播指数明显上升,以洞庭湖周围与湖北省内的长江沿线区域上升更加明显。2070年时段,A2情景下血吸虫病潜在北界线的北移趋势明显大于B2情景,进入到山东省境内。血吸虫传播指数进一步增加,A2情景增加的幅度明显大于B2情景。总之,在未考虑将来的适应措施与其他环境因素对血吸虫病传播影响的前提下,A2、B2情景下的血吸虫病的流行区分布和传播指数都将发生明显变化,其中A2情景对我国血吸虫病流行的影响程度大于B2情景。

Projection of the Transmission Scale and Intensity of Schistosomiasis in China Under A2 and B2 Climate Change Scenarios

The purpose of the investigation is to project the scale and intensity changes of schistosomiasis transmission in China, under the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios in the 2005s (1991-2005) , 2050s (2046-2050) and 2070s (2066-2070) , respectively, based on the integration of the PRECIS model and disease transmission models. Results show that the distributive boundary of schistosomiasis will be extended northward both in the 2050s and 2070s under the A2 and B2 scenarios, especially in Anhui and Jiangsu Province of east China. In the 2050s, the distributive boundaries are similar under the A2 and B2 scenarios, and the endemic areas are most distributed along large rivers and lakes where the schistosomiasis transmission index is higher than 1800. Particularly the transmission index is significantly high along the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake in the 2050s. Furthermore, the schistosomiasis transmission scale under the A2 scenario is larger than that under the B2 scenario in the 2070s, and parts of Shandong Province will become potential endemic areas. By comparing the two periods of the 2050s and 2070s, the spatial patterns of schistosomiasis transmission index are similar, while the schistosomiasis transmission index will increase significantly in the 2070s, especially under the A2 scenario. In conclusion, the transmission scale and intensity of schistosomiasis will change significantly under the A2 and B2 scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, especially under A2 scenario, except that the adaptation measures are taken or the transmission of schistosomiasis is impacted by other environmental factors.