1996年11月9日长江口以东6.1级地震的模糊预测和模糊跟踪

把模糊数学方法引入地震预测已有十余年的历史,在众多的结果中选择模糊编网、灰色模糊模型、日本海沟和本地区的模糊相关及显著地震发生后的模糊跟踪,作为长、中、短（临）和震后趋势判断的各个环节,构成了地震的模糊预测方法。1996年11月9日（简称“11.9”飞下同）长江口以东海中6.1级地震前后,根据模糊方法作了各阶段预测,分别列入近几年的上海市地 震局地震会商报告中,震前预测和震后跟踪结果与实际基本一致。可以说这次地震是模糊方法取得较为成功的一个震例。

FUZZY PREDICTION AND FUZZY TRACING OF EAST ESTUARY OF YANGTZE RIVER EARTHQUAKE WITH M=6. 1 ON NOV. 9, 1996

There have been more than ten years since the fuzzy mathematics methods was intro-duced into the earthquake prediction- Among the various results,this paper chose the fuzzynet,the grey fuzzy model,the fuzzy correlation between Japan oceanic trench and this re-gion,the fuzzy tracing after the occurrence of a significant earthquake as the different keypoints of the preseismic long-, medium- and short-term prediction and the postseismictrend analysis which constituting the seismic fuzzy prediction method. Before and after theoccurrence of east Estuary of Yangtze River Earthquake with Ms 6. 1,on Nov. 9 , 1996,thepredictions for every period were made by using the fuzzy methods and listed in the seismo-logical consultation reports raised by Seismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipa1ity in re-cent years. The preseismic prediction and the postseismic tracing result are basically con-sistent with the actual situation. Therefore,we may consider this earthquake as a typicalsuccessful example for the earthquake prediction by using fuzzy methods.