连云港市森林火灾发生特点及火险预报方法的研究

通过对连云港市１９８７－１９９３年大小和程度不同的１１１次森林火灾查找原因并进行天气分析，指出原全国森林火险天气等级方法的不合理部分，并加以改进，增加了实效雨量、积雪深度等因素，推导出比较符合实际的森林火险天气等级预报方法。通过１９９４－１９９６年的４５次森林火灾验证，准确率提高达９％。

OCCURRENCE FEATURES AND FORECAST METHODS FOR FOREST FIRES IN LIANYUNGANG CITY

There were 111 forest fires in varying degrees during the period from 1987 to 1993 in Lianyungang city. The genesis of the hazard was investigated and corresponding weather was analyzed. Some irrational parts were pointed out of the old rating method for the forest fire weather for the whole country. By introducing effective rainfall and snow depth as impacting factors, a new rating method for forest fire weather was presented, its accuracy being 9% higher than the old one according to forecast verification against forty five forest fires taking place from 1994 to 1996.