改进的灰色Verhulst GM(1,1)建筑物沉降模型

造成建筑物的沉降因素是复杂多样,沉降机理与过程是非线性的,从理论上给出符合实际的建筑物沉降公式很困难,许多安全等级很高的重要建筑物在施工期间均需进行沉降观测,以保证建筑物的安全而及时修改设计。根据建筑物沉降观测数据列特征,综合分析了影响建筑物沉降的因素,应用灰色理论关于连续非线性数据列的建模方法,经过二次拟合,建立了能描述高层建筑沉降过程的非等间距灰色Verhulst GM(1,1)模型。该模型经重庆地区某高层建筑沉降观测实例验证,能较准确预测建筑物的沉降过程和最终沉降量。表明利用少数高层建筑沉降的观测数据建立非等间距的灰色Verhulst GM(1,1)模型能较准确模拟建筑物沉降过程和预测最终沉降量,其建模方法较简单、精度高,具有一定的实用性。

Improved grey Verhulst GM(1, 1) model for predicting building subsidence

The factors inducing building subsidence are complex,and subsidence mechanism process is non-linear,so it is very difficult to obtain the theoretical building subsidence formula.Many important buildings of high security rank in construction period all must carry on the subsidence monitoring to guarantee the buildings safe and the prompt design revision.According to the characteristics of the building subsidence monitoring data,the paper synthetically analyzed on the influencing factors of building subsidence,and using grey theory about the continual nonlinear data row modeling method,through two times of fitting,established non-equidistance gray Verhulst GM(1,1) model,which can describe the high building subsidence process.This model,validated by some high building subsidence monitoring example in Chongqing area,can accurately forecast the building subsidence process and the final subsidence quantity.The results show that the modeling method is easy,high accurate and practicable.