气候变暖对新疆乌昌地区棉花种植区划的影响

在对新疆乌昌地区1961-2010年≥10℃积温、最热月（7月）平均气温和无霜期等热量要素时空变化进行分析的基础上，结合北疆棉区区划指标，完成了2004年前、后乌昌地区棉花种植气候区划。并对未来年平均气温升高1～4℃时，棉花种植气候区划的可能变化进行了预估。结果表明：乌昌地区热量资源在空间分布上表现为“平原多，山区少”的格局。1961-2010年≥l0℃积温、最热月平均气温和无霜期分别以每10年52.3℃• d、0.1℃和3.3 d的速率增多（升高、延长），并分别于1995年、2004年和1987年发生了突变。受其影响，2004年后乌昌地区宜棉区较之前明显扩大，次宜棉区、风险棉区和不宜棉区有不同程度的缩小。未来气候变暖将对乌昌地区棉花种植气候区划产生较大影响，年平均气温每升高1℃，宜棉区面积将扩大6600 km²，次宜棉区和不宜棉区分别缩小2100 km²和4700 km²，风险棉区面积变化不大。

Impact of Global Warming on Cotton-Planting Zoning in the ürümqi-Changji Region of Xinjiang

Based on the daily temperature data of sixteen meteorological stations in rmqi City and the Changji Hui national autonomous prefecture of Xinjiang(the rmqi-Changji region) during 1961-2010,the fundamental spatial and temporal change characteristics of the annual accumulated temperature of ≥10℃,July(the warmest month in a year) mean temperature and frost-free period were analyzed by using the linear regression method,the t-test and the three-dimensional and quadratic trend surface simulation and the inverse-distance squared weighting residual error revising based on GIS.The cotton-planting climate zoning for the rmqi-Changji region in 1961-2003 and 2004-2010 were completed with the climate indicators of cotton zoning.Possible changes of climate zoning for cotton planting relative to that in 1961-2010 were projected for the future when annual mean temperature increases 1℃,2℃,3℃ and 4℃,respectively.The main results are as follows: the agro-climatic heat resource in 1961-2010 was obviously different from areas of the rmqi-Changji region;generally,the annual accumulated temperature of ≥10℃,July mean temperature and frost-free period were higher/longer in plain areas than in mountainous areas.The three indicators showed an increasing trend at the rates of 52.3℃·d/10a、0.1℃/10a and 3.3 d/10a in 1961-2010,and had an abrupt increase,rise and extension in 1995,2004 and 1987,respectively.Under the joint effects of the above-mentioned climate factors,the area suitable for cotton growing after 2004 had a substantial expansion relative to that before 2004,but the areas secondly suitable,risk and unsuitable for cotton growing reduced to different extent.The global warming in future will significantly affect the cotton zoning in the rmqi-Changji region.Overall,under the premise of other conditions remaining invariant,when the annual mean temperature increases by 1℃ relative to that of 1961-2010,the area suitable for cotton growing will increase 6600 km2,and the areas secondly suitable and unsuitable for cotton growing will reduce 2100 km2 and 4700 km2,respectively,but change in the area risk for cotton growing will be very small.