岩土边坡地震崩滑的三级评判预测

岩土边坡地震崩滑是最为严重的地质灾害之一，对岩土边坡地震崩滑的可能性提出及时有效的评价预测至关重要。本文提出并讨论了岩土边坡地震崩滑三级评判的思想及其实施方案，由主要考虑地震影响的初判，到以考虑控制地震崩滑的岩土边坡内、外因素为主的再判，最后是研究岩土边坡力学稳定性的详判，构成了一套由粗到细、分级筛选的有效方法。继续深入研究扩展该套方法的功能，使之适应多种灾害的评判预测工作，对于地质灾害防治手段和技术的发展具有战略意义。

The Estimation and Prediction of the Slide and Collapse of Soil and Rock Slope Triggered by Earthquakes with Three Steps

The slide and collapse of soil or rock slope triggered by earthquakes is one of the most serious geological disasters. Therefore, it is important to estimate and predict the occurrence of this kind of disasters. The idea and its implement procedure to estimate the slide and collapse of slopes with three steps, preliminary estimation with consideration mainly on the influence of earthquakes and second estimation with consideration on the inner and outer causes for the earthquake failure of the slopes as well as detailed estimation with consideration on the mechanical equilibrium of the slopes, are put forward in this paper. These three steps together compose a set of efficient methodological system that selects the most dangerous slopes step by step from vast soil or rock slopes distributed in a large area. It is significant to enlarge the function of this methodological system so that it can be used in the estimation and prediction of more other kinds of geological disasters.