城市体系规模分布与空间分布的关系研究

运用位序-规模法则与最近邻分析，定量分析了1985~2011年间全国前300位城市的规模分布与空间分布的演变规律，并利用Granger因果关系检验对二者之间的相关性就行了研究。研究表明：（1）中国前300位城市市区非农业人口规模的分布符合位序-规模法则。从历年变化趋势来看， 规模结构指数Q值总体上呈现出“下降-上升-波动”的三阶段变化特征，说明人口集中与分散的各种驱动力量相互交织。（2）从空间分布类型来看，各年城市空间分布的R统计值虽然有较大的波动，但均远小于1，表现出明显的集聚分布模式，区域自然与社会经济条件及国家发展战略深刻影响着城市体系的发展及其空间分布。（3）在1985-2011年间，我国前300位城市的规模分布指数Q和空间分布指数R之间的变化趋势有着很大的一致性，由Granger因果关系检验的结果可以看出，中国城市体系的规模分布与空间分布之间存在着双向的因果关系。意味着城市在谋划自身的发展过程中，不仅要注重自身主观的积极作为，还需考虑到周边其他城市的影响，充分利用城市间的空间联系来强化自身发展。

The Relationship between Size Distribution and Spatial Distribution of Urban Systems

The paper is adopting rank-size rule and nearest neighbor analysis to analyze the evolution of size distribution and spatial distribution of the top 300 cities in China. Then the correlation between size distribution and spatial distribution was studied by using Granger causality test. The results show that: The urban district non-agricultural population’s size distribution of the top 300 cities is in line with rank-size rule. From the point of view trends over the past 27 years, the size distribution index Q showed a three stage change characteristics of decline-rise-fluctuation. It’s indicating that the driving forces of population aggregation and diffuseness are intertwined. R statistical values of the spatial distribution although had large fluctuations but less than 1, and it showed a significant concentration distribution patterns. Natural and socio-economic conditions of the region and the national development strategy had a profound impact on the development and spatial distribution of urban system. It had a great consistency between the size distribution index Q and spatial distribution index R of China's top 300 cities in the past 27 years. There existed a causal relationship between size distributions and spatial distribution in Chinese urban systems can be seen from the Granger causality test results. The existence of widespread urban system spatial correlation means that cities in planning development process need to not only focus on their own initiative as subjective, but also consider the impact of other neighboring cities. Make full use of space link to strengthen their development and let the urban systems gradually form a complementary industrial structure and ordered functions aggregates, to enhance their overall competitiveness.