2010年夏季海河流域降水预测技术方法评述

对2010年海河流域夏季（6—8月）降水趋势预测效果、〖JP+1〗主要预测依据及技术方法进行回顾与评述。从气候背景、海温和大气环流特征等方面，分析了2010年海河流域夏季少雨的成因，认为目前海河流域仍处于少雨气候背景下，前期海温异常、夏季西太平洋副高异常强大、偏西，东亚夏季风偏弱等特征的不同，是影响海河流域少雨的主要原因。总结了预测的成功与不足，对提高汛期降水趋势预测准确率和开展流域气候预测服务具有重要意义。

Review of Prediction Techniques for Summer Precipitation over Haihe River Basin in 2010

The prediction precision of the precipitation trend over the Haihe River basin in summer(JJA) 2010 and the prediction techniques and major forecast bases are reviewed.The causes of the summer drought in 2010 are analyzed from the aspects of the climatic background,SST,general circulation patterns,etc.It reveals that the Haihe River basin is presently still in a less-rain climate background.The differences in the general circulation patterns were the major causes of the summer drought in 2010,including the preceding SST anomalies,a weaker East Asian Summer Monsoon,and a stronger and more westward sub-tropical high over the western Pacific.The merits and demerits of forecasting are summarized as well,so to improve the forecasting accuracy of precipitation trends in flood season and provide better climate prediction service.