1971-2005年中国CO2排放影响因素分析

利用Kaya恒等式结合宏观经济背景的变迁，对1971-2005年期间影响中国CO2排放量的因子展开分析。结果表明：经济的快速发展和人口的增长是CO2排放增加的主要驱动因素；能源强度的改善和能源结构的低碳化不仅是减少CO2排放的重要选择，也对中国实现"十一五"期间单位GDP能耗降低20%的目标具有重要的现实意义。

Analysis of Factors Impacting China's CO2 Emissions During 1971-2005

China's CO2 emissions change during 1971-2005 was analyzed by using Kaya identity in combination with the evolution of macroeconomic background. The study indicates that the increase of CO2 emissions is mainly due to rapid economic development and population growth. Meanwhile, improvement of energy intensity and optimization of energy structure are not only the important options in terms of CO2 abatement, but also play an important role in realizing the target of 20% reduction in energy consumption per GDP during the 11th Five-Year Plan.