水库诱发地震危险性预测的模式识别方法初探

本文阐明了模式识别方法的原理及其在水库诱发地震危险性预测研究中应用的可行性和实用性。以国内22个水库为样本(其中11个是有震样本),提取水库诱发地震有关的地质、地震、水文等方面的因素及特征,对拟建长江三峡三斗坪和清江隔河岩高坝水库进行预测。初步判定这两个水库区存在着水库诱发地震的危险性背景,并且清江隔河岩高坝水库区都镇湾以西地段,不存在诱发地震的背景,而其以东库,存在着水库诱发地震的背景。

RESEARCH ON A METHOD OF HOW TODISTINGUISH THE MODEL OF FORECASTING THERISK OF RESERVOIR INDUCED EARTHQUAKE

This paper describes the principle of how to distinguish the model and tis feasibility and practicabity in forecasting the risk of reservoir induced earthquake. Taking 22 reservoirs ( among then, earthquakes occur in 11 reservoirs ) as an example and picking up the factors and characters of geology, earthquake and hydrology which relate to the reservoir induced earthquake, we have forecasted the reservoirs which will be built in Sandouping and Qing-geheyan area of Three Gorge in the Yangtze River. It judges preliminarily that the risk of reservoir induced earthquakes are exised in these two reservoir areas, but induced earthquakes do not occur at the west of Dozhenwan region in Qinggeheyan reservoir area, they may occur in the east of this area.