全球生态系统服务未来变化的情景

ZW（*]HT6H]〓收稿日期：；修回日期：2007 05 18. 〓作者简介：HT6SS]张永民（1973 ），男，河南延津人，副研究员，主要从事生态系统研究.WT6HZ]E mail: WT6BZ]zym0810@yahoo.com.cnZW)] HT4F] HT5K]（JZ)] HT5H]GK2] 摘〓要:HT5K]简要介绍了千年生态系统评估（MA）项目情景工作组的报告《生态系统与人类福祉：情景》的核心内容。该报告主要构建和评估了全球生态系统服务在21世纪前50年可能出现的4个情景，总的来讲，生态系统服务的主要变化包括：①在实力秩序情景中，生态系统的供给服务、调节服务、文化服务和支持服务都呈现下降趋势；②在适应组合情景中，生态系统的供给服务、调节服务和文化服务呈现上升趋势，而支持服务变化不大；③在全球协同情景中，生态系统的供给服务呈现上升趋势，而调节服务、文化服务与支持服务则呈现下降趋势；④在技术家园情景中，生态系统的文化服务呈现下降趋势，供给服务和调节服务呈现上升趋势，而支持服务变化不大；⑤在4个情景中，有些供给服务与其它服务之间存在显著的此长彼消的关系；⑥在4个情景中，有些生态系统服务的变化在工业化国家和发展中国家之间存在显著的差异。

Changes of Global Ecosystem Services in the Future under the Four MA Scenarios

Based on the four MA scenarios, plausible changes of global ecosystem services during the first half of the 21 st century were assessed in the report of MA's scenarios working group. Overall, the main results are as follows: ① In Order from Strength scenario, provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services are all in worse condition in 2050 than they are today; ② In Adapting Mosaic scenario, provisioning, regulating and cultural ecosystem services get improved in 2050; ③ In Global Orchestration scenario, provisioning ecosystem services are improved while the others are degraded in 2050; ④ In TechnoGarden scenario, cultural ecosystem services are degraded while provisioning and regulating services are enhanced in 2050; ⑤ Trade offs exist in all of the MA scenarios between provisioning services and other services, that is, increasing the flow of provisioning services often leads to reductions in supporting, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services; ⑥ Differences often exist in the extent of ecosystem services changes between industrial and developing countries.