厄尔尼诺现象及预测现状

厄尔尼诺现象是目前发现的最明显气候异常信号.本文简短地介绍了厄尔尼诺的研究和预测现状,指出厄尔尼诺的预测水平还很低,其主要因素是一、没有建立起全球立体的厄尔尼诺监测网;二、研究局限于热带太平洋或热带印度洋-太平洋;三、缺乏多尺度相互作用的深入研究.另外,本文描述了厄尔尼诺发生前热带太平洋大气-海洋环流异常的几个特征.

EL Nino EVENTS AND THE SITUATION OF IT'S PREDICTION

El Ni?o Events is the most obviously signal of the climate anomaly. In this paper, we reviewed the condition of El Nino's analysis and predictions in the last few years, and point out that the level of El Ni?o's predictions is lower yet. We think the main reasons are: First, the global three-dimensional El Nino monitoring net isn't established yet; Second, all the researches are limited in tropical Pacific Ocean or the Indian- Pacific Ocean; Third, the multi-scale interaction researches are insufficient. We also introduce several characters of climate-ocean anomalies of tropical Pacific Ocean which occurred before the El Nino events in this paper.