镇江雷暴气候特征及天气学预报方法分析

雷暴是严重的气象灾害之一，给人民生命财产带来严重影响。雷暴的发生发展地域性强，因此加强镇江本地雷暴特征的研究和预警工作十分必要。利用镇江市1959--2010年的雷暴气候资料，通过气候倾向率、小波分析等统计方法，对其周期性、时空分布特征及年（代）际、季节变化特征等进行了分析，得出以下结论：1）镇江市雷暴呈现出市区少、周边地区多的特点，其中句容雷暴发生频率最多且持续时间长。2）镇江市平均雷暴日数存在4a、6a、10～12a左右、准20a的长周期振荡信号。从长周期分析，镇江市近几年的年平均雷暴日数处于偏多周期时段。3）年平均雷暴日数距平，20世纪60年代、70年代、21世纪的00年代是正距平，特别是2006--2010年连续5a的平均雷暴日数都大于气候值，是雷暴频发时期；80年代、90年代为负距平。1963年的雷暴日数最多，有53．3天；1979年的最少，为15天。通过对1999--2008年镇江市地面观测资料的194个雷暴天气过程个例进行统计分析，对影响镇江市的雷暴天气系统进行了分型，在此基础上提出了预报镇江市雷暴天气的思路，为开展雷暴预报预警业务提供理论依据。

Analysis of Climatic Characteristics and Synoptic Forecasting Method of Thunderstorm in Zhenjiang

Thunderstorm is one of the severe meteorological disasters, and it brings great impact on people＇ s life and property. For there is a strong regional character with thunderstorm development, it is necessary to strengthen the study of Zhenjiang local characteristics of thunderstorm and it＇ s early warn- ing. Based thunderstorm climate data of Zhenjiang from 1959--2010, using climate tendency rate, wave- let analysis and other statistical methods, the characteristics of periodicity, temporal and spatial distribu- tion, annual （decadal） , seasonal variation were analyzed. The results are as follows. 1 ） Thunderstorm in Zhenjiang presents less in urban, and more in surrounding areas. And in Jurong, the occurrence frequen- cy of thunderstorm is the most and the lasting time is quite long. 2）There are 4 a, 6 a, 10--12 a, and quasi 20 a long-period oscillation signal of the average thunderstorm days in Zhenjiang. From the long cy- cle analysis, average annual thunderstorm days in Zhenjiang in recent years are in above normal period. 3） The average annual thunderstorm days anomalies in 1960s, 1970s, 2000s are positive, especially in 2006--2010, the average annual thunderstorm days are greater than the climatic values, is frequent peri- od. The anomalies in 1980s, 1990s are negative. The thunderstorm days in 1963 is maximum by 53.3 days, and in 1979 is minimum by 15 days. By statistical analyzing 194 thunderstorm process from 1999 to 2008 in Zhenjiang, the thunderstorm system impact Zhenjiang city is classified. Then the thoughts of thunderstorm forecast weather in Zhenjiang is advanced, and provide a theoretical basis for the thunder- storm forecast and warning services.