SWAT模型在三江源地区适用性的初步分析

为验证SWAT模型在三江源地区运用的可行性，利用SWAT模型对黄河源头地区的地表径流进行了模拟，结果表明：SWAT模型在三江源地区水文水资源模拟是可行的，模拟结果与实测结果具有良好的一致性，对未来气候变化背景下水资源变化预测结果与其他研究结论基本一致。SWAT模型在三江源地区可运用于水文水资源的利用及管理、气候变化背景下水资源的变化模拟、洪水短期预报、人工增雨对水资源的影响、冰雪消融对河流水文特征的影响。由于区域环境特点，在使用SWAT模型时，必须解决气象站点稀缺、流域面积过大且分属不同流域、验证资料缺乏、冻土层的存在、地理信息系统资料陈旧等问题。总体而言，SWAT模型在我国高原地区有一定推广及应用价值。

Preliminary Applicable Analysis of SWAT Model in the Three Rivers Source Area

In order to verify the feasibility of the SWAT model applying in the three rivers source ar- ea, the surface runoff is simulated hy SWAT model in the source area of the Yellow River, the simulation result shows that： SWAT model can be applied to simulate hydrology and water resources in the three riv- ers region, the simulation results are consistent with the tested results. The SWAT model in the three riv- ers area can be applied to the following aspects： utilization and management of hydrology and water re- sources; simulation of water resources variations in the context of climate change; the flood short-term forecast; artificial rainfall impacts on water resources; the melting ice and snow impact on hydrological characteristics of rivers. When using the SWAT model, we must solve the following problems due to the regional characteristics ： scarcity of meteorological stations ; watershed area is too large and belongs to dif- ferent watersheds; lack of validation data; the presence of permafrost; dated geographic information sys- tem data. Overall, SWAT model is of certain value in popularization and application in plateau region in China.